Exceedance Probability 3


Exceedance Probability 3 : Natural Disaster. The probability PE that a certain value hcrit (e.g. discharge, precipitation depth, wind speed) will be exceeded in a given period of time: PE = P (h > hcrit) Example: A one hundred-year event has an exceedance probability of 1 % in each year. Note that the probability that a one hundredyear event occurs within a period of 100 years amounts to 63 %
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