Exceedance Probability 3
Exceedance Probability 3 : Natural Disaster. The probability PE that a certain value hcrit (e.g. discharge, precipitation depth, wind speed) will be exceeded in a given period of time: PE = P (h > hcrit) Example: A one hundred-year event has an exceedance probability of 1 % in each year. Note that the probability that a one hundredyear event occurs within a period of 100 years amounts to 63 %