Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) 3
Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) 3 : Natural Disaster. the likelihood of occurrence, expressed in terms of the long-term average number of years, between flood events as large as or larger than the design flood event. For example, floods with a discharge as large as or larger than the 100-year ARI flood will occur on average once every 100-years. ARI is related to AEP and Odds of Flooding as follows: ARI in years equals the reciprocal of AEP expressed in terms of chance.?For example, a 1% AEP flood has a chance of occurrence in any year of 0.01, and an associated ARI of 100 years.?The Odds of Flooding are equal to the ARI in years.?Therefore the 100 year ARI flood is also the 100:1 flood (see also Annual Exceedance Probability)
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