Universal Adversary (UA)


Universal Adversary (UA) :

The UA is a fictionalized adversary created by compiling known terrorist motivations, doctrine, tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) in live, virtual, and constructive simulations. The UA is based on realistic threats, but it is designed not to compromise actual intelligence. The UA will be utilized for DHS-sponsored exercises, providing participants with a realistic, capabilities-based opponent. Prevention exercises will employ an adaptable, threat-based UA, in some cases represented by physical Red Teams or analytical opponents. The UA reflects real-world uncertainties and unpredictability, and evolving terrorist TTPs. The UA is currently broken into the following five threat groups currently faced by the U.S. within our borders: (1) The Anti-Globalization Movement is mostly non-violent, but some anarchist groups and more extreme activists have used violence. The national Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) has catalogued and attributed 70 terrorist events to Anti- Globalization groups from 1998 through 2004, none of which took place in the United States. The Anti-Globalization movement emerged throughout the 1990s and became a serious security threat, as tens of thousands of demonstrators protested Great Eight (G8) Economic Summit in Cologne, the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Seattle, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) / World Bank in Washington. Police were unprepared for the number of protesters, and unprepared for how well they were organized. While people demonstrated in the streets, companies were suffering thousands of cyberattacks. This mobilization, the sophistication of organization, and highly technical cyber skills overwhelmed law enforcement and security personnel. (2) Domestic Right Wing Extremism, racist, white-power groups, along with militias, have grown in size and prominence throughout the United States. The number of groups is rising, but the top groups were in decline in 2004. MIPT attributes no terrorist events to Domestic Right Wing groups from 1998 through 2004. The violence perpetrated has been mostly criminal and harassment in nature - vandalism, propaganda fliers, and the occasional physical assault. These attacks are not carried out by groups, but by random individuals inspired by groups rhetoric. The Southern Poverty Law Center's Intelligence Project counted 762 active hate groups and 152 active Patriot groups in 2004. (3) The Environmental / Animal Rights Movement has emerged as a serious domestic terrorist threat. Various sources have catalogued and attributed 133 terrorist events to Environmental / Animal Rights groups from 1998 through mid-April 2005. Extremists target government agencies, private companies, academic research institutes, and the individuals associated with all three, in direct action to stop animal suffering,4 or to stop the exploitation and destruction of the natural environment.5 More recent attacks have targeted sprawl. 6 Two domestic Environmental / Animal Rights groups are designated as terrorist organizations. The Earth Liberation Front (ELF) and the Animal Liberation Front (ALF) are partner organizations in an increasingly violent Environmental / Animal Rights movement. Neither group has a central leader, central location, or a defined organization. There is no official membership. An individual is considered a member of ELF or ALF based on their belief in the central ideology and their actions. (4) The Global Salafist Jihad (GSJ) Movement is the predominant threat to the United States. GSJ groups are nontraditional terrorist adversaries driven by a common idea and motivation. It is a movement in which al Qaeda ideologues like bin Laden, al-Zawahiri drive followers to pursue physical jihad. Various sources have catalogued and attributed 225 terrorist events to GSJ groups from 1998 through 2004. Bombings accounted for 141 of these attacks. The second and third most common tactics are Armed Attacks and Kidnappings. Bombings and explosions far outweigh other forms of GSJ groups attacks, and are happening more frequently and in higher numbers. VBIEDs and IEDs were used in most bomb/explosives attacks. (5) The Lone Actor / Small Group is a serious threat to United States countermeasures and intelligence capabilities. Acting alone defies infiltration, intervention, or intelligence collection. Various sources have catalogued and attributed 43 terrorist events to Lone Actors or Small Groups from 1998 through 2004. Biological Agents accounted for 14 of the 43 attacks. The second most common attacks are Bombings, accounting for nine attacks, and the third most common attacks are Armed Attacks, with seven. (DHS, HSEEP, Vol. V, 2005, pp. 11-12)

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