Confidence Interval 1
Confidence Interval 1 : (a) A range of values which bracket a point estimate; e.g., there is a 95% probability that the true value is contained in the 95% confidence interval. [AIHA, 2000: Risk Assessment Principles for the Industrial Hygienist]; (b) A range of values (a1 < a < a2) determined from a sample of definite rules so chosen that, in repeated random samples from the hypothesized population, an arbitrarily fixed proportion of that range will include the true value, x, of an estimated parameter. The limits, a1 and a2, are called confidence limits; the relative frequency with which these limits include a is called the confidence coefficient; and the complementary probability is called the confidence level. As with significance levels, confidence levels are commonly chosen as 0.05 or 0.01, the corresponding confidence coefficients being 0.95 or 0.99. Confidence intervals should not be interpreted as implying that the parameter itself has a range of values; it has only one value, (a) On the other hand, the confidence limits (a1, a2) being derived from a sample, are random variables, the values of which on a particular sample either do or do not include the true value a of the parameter. However, in repeated samples, a certain proportion of these intervals will include a provided that the actual population satisfied the initial hypothesis. [SRA, 1999: Glossary of Risk Analysis Terms] [USDOE, 2000: RAIS Glossary]
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