Recurrence Period
Recurrence Period : When applied to the repetition of such rare events as large destructive earthquakes and tsunamis, a most elusive parameter, and yet one that has the most scientific and social impact. It is the estimated time interval between the occurrence of events. Usually, the larger the event is in magnitude and destruction, the longer is the recurrence period. For example incorporating the concept of recurrence intervals into the seismic gap model hypothesis has enabled the development of time-dependent earthquake forecasts, and probabilistic statements of earthquake hazards. The probability for the occurrence of a future event along a specific fault segment during some time interval is a function of both the amount of time elapsed since the previous large or great earthquake and the average recurrence time. Because of the observed variability of earthquake recurrence intervals at a single location or a fault segment, the temporal resolution available using historic and geologic data ranges from a few decades to a few years, at best. Hence, recurrence time estimates based on these types of data usually fall into the category of earthquake forecasts. The same applies to the estimates of the recurrence periods of large destructive tsunamis, but with a greater degree of uncertainty
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