Return Times
Return Times : Sometimes called the recurrence time or recurrence interval. The return time, or more properly the average return time, of an earthquake is the number of years between occurrences of an earthquake of a given magnitude in a particular area. for example, if the average time of an earthquake having magnitude greater than or equal to 7 is 100 years, then, on the average, such earthquakes will occur every 100 years. If such earthquakes occur randomly in time, there is always the chance that the actual time interval between the events will be less or greater than 100 years. Return time is best described in terms of probabilities. in the case of an earthquake having a 100-year average return time, there is about an 18 percent chance that such an earthquake will occur in the next 20 years and a 63 percent chance than it will occur in the next 100 years. on the other hand, there is a 14 percent chance that it will not occur in the next 200 years
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