"`As often happens immediately following a major flood event, the number of flood insurance policies in force [increase]. But our experience has shown many of those new policies are not renewed after the first year or two if no new floods occur. People tend to forget how bad it was or think that something that bad couldn't possibly occur in the same place again. But they are sadly mistaken. These big flood events will happen again'." [Quote is that of FEMA NFIP Deputy Administrator Howard Leikin in 2002] "NFIP studies have documented the drop-off in policy counts when these policies reach their first or second anniversary of purchase, a phenomenon that has been termed the "anniversary effect." In many cases, the policy count returns to its pre-disaster level or below flood insurance policies in force in the upper Midwest increased by an astounding 60.7 percent within a few months after the Upper Midwest Flood of April 1997, but a year later dropped dramatically to less than the number of policies in force the month before the flood". (FEMA, FEMA Warns, 2002)