Likelihood (Statistical)
Likelihood (Statistical) : Definition: conditional probability of observing a particular event given the hypothesis under consideration is true. Sample Usage: Analysts evaluated the likelihood of a breach in the border fence given their observations of population increases in area cities. Annotation: (1) Likelihood is used colloquially as a synonym for probability. (2) In statistical usage there is a clear distinction between probability and likelihood: whereas probability allows us to predict unknown outcomes based on known parameters, likelihood allows us to estimate unknown parameters based on known outcomes. (3) The probability of a successful attack occurring can be broken into two related quantities: the probability that an attack occurs (which is a common mathematical representation of threat), and the probability that the attack succeeds, given that it is attempted (which is a common mathematical representation of vulnerability). In the context of natural hazards, probability of occurrence is typically informed by the frequency of past incidents or occurrences. These probabilities are often colloquially referred to as likelihoods. See: Appendix A for 2008 definition. See Also: likelihood
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